I know many of us have been caught flatfooted regarding the latest events in Georgia. For one thing, I’ve always had trouble spelling ‘Caucasus’ and Abkhazia sounds like it was a name made up for the next installment of Call of Duty. Whilst I am also sure there are many around who had originally thought that the Russians actually attacked an American State.
Though as irrelevant as it may all sound, the drum roll for a new cold war has begun.
My advice is to not look at the events in isolation, but as a study of how nations fulfill their interests. Where US interests dictate that the world is their giant Monopoly board. So they buy up all the land, cram in the hotels and military bases; punitively punishing everyone or leaving them languishing in jail, with no spare cards left to resist.
This is the US that took advantage of the paralysed Bear, dotting its back yard with various colour-coded revolutions. It has pushed for missile interceptors to be place in the Czech Republic and Poland, and imaginatively wanted us to believe that Iran had its eyes on Eastern Europe. All the while the Russians have looked askance. Then came the independence of Kosovo, which to many was the straw that branded the Russian’s back.
The Russians meanwhile have always played Chess, and they are damn good at it. Without a war to name for it, they played head to head with the British in the 19th century fight for Central Asia and India in the ‘Great Game’. Neither can the 20th century be ignored for the great upheavals seen between Capitalism and Communism. The 21st century likewise displays a new Russia. It may have lost the ideological drive that Communism once made it strive for, but it still remains a power that is determined to protect its sphere of influence.
Noting the idea of ’sphere of influence’ is paramount to understanding Russia. Ever since Tamerlane and his Golden Horde decimated what was then Russia, the Russians have been paranoid about protecting their boundaries and what goes on around their boundaries. Georgia is no minor state in this context. Georgia is the birth place for Joseph Stalin whose father was Ossetian. In Soviet times, Georgia was the top holiday destination for high ranking apparatchik. Georgia IS a part of Russia’s territorial integrity.
This is all I can say about the matter for the time being. I have several views withstanding:
- The whole issue may have been engineered by the US to test the Russians for what is an inevitable clash.
- The US have quite plainly blundered.
- The Russians have begun plans for something greater (Iran and the Middle East).
- There is a plan to weaken Europe by distracting it’s foreign policy efforts to the Caucasus.
Allah knows best.
